News

Rocket Man still shy of Black Caviar's class

24th May 2011

Racing Post - Sam Walker - Monday, 23 May 2011

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

THE on-track commentator called Rocket Man the "champion international sprinter of the world" when he won the KrisFlyer International Sprint on Sunday, but the five-year-old didn't come close to Black Caviar on the ratings - and he didn't even produce the performance of the week.

It wasn't the biggest crime, but it was a misleading statement from someone who is supposed to provide an informed and balanced view of proceedings.

By no measure is Rocket Man the champion of the world and his defeat of a bunch of Singapore Group 3 horses did nothing to bring him any closer to the brilliant Australian mare who still leads the world on RPRs.

Let's get it straight: Rocket Man is a superb, world-class sprinter.

He is a worthy incumbent of the prestigious post of far east sprint champion - a position which was held by world-renowned horses like Sacred Kingdom, Silent Witness and Absolute Champion.

But, entitled though his connections are to be proud and excited of their star, they are shooting at the moon when they talk him up as "better than" Black Caviar.

Rocket Man may be the next Sacred Kingdom or Absolute Champion, which is a massive accolade, but Black Caviar is not the next anything - she is unique.

She hits killer, relentless sectionals, has the ability and consistency to drum out hugely impressive wins a couple of weeks apart and has never been beaten.

She is the highest-rated mare in RPR history and has produced a record-equalling five 130+ runs in her career, a level which Rocket Man is yet to hit.

If Hay List had not yet crossed paths with the mare, his connections could also be talking him up as a real contender to her crown (and they did early on), but he has tried and has always come up short, despite being better than the rest of Australia by some margin.

Rocket Man ranks with the best sprinters in the world, but is behind what may prove to be an all-time legend.

With Black Caviar and Hay List not going to Royal Ascot this year, Rocket Man looks a stand out for the Golden Jubilee, though he is not yet a guaranteed runner.

He earned an RPR of 127 for his eased-down, five-length success in the Lion City Cup, which ranks him second to Black Caviar on the sprint list and fourth in the overall standings behind Frankel and So You Think.

Local challengers Eclair Fastpass and Perfect Pins - second and third and yet to score in graded company - filled the places behind Rocket Man, who posted a winning RPR of 125 on Sunday.

There is a chance he is getting better at the age of five, as his last two wide-margin wins have suggested, and he may well find a couple more pounds if he comes up against something that can really push him to his limit, but for now he will have to settle for the role of head pageboy.

Back to the best run of the week and, for the second time in three weeks, it was So You Think who led the way with another easy win from his new base in Ireland.

Although he was a champion in Australia, So You Think remains a horse of untapped potential, since he was only once tested down under (in the Melbourne Cup over 2m under a huge weight) and he still hasn't been tested in Ireland.

He enjoyed easy wins in Australia, but the form was limited, as there were few, if any, Australian middle-distance horses who could push him beyond the peak level he achieved (128).

In the Underwood he beat Dariana, who was hammered on her next two starts, inthe Yalumba he beat Alcopop, who was well beaten on his next two starts, in the Cox Plate he beat nine-year-old Zipping and in the Mackinnon he beat Descarado, who pulled-up in the Melbourne Cup next time.

Though winning performances are not all about the runner-up, these results indicate that nothing he achieved in Australia was worth a mark in the 130s.

In each of the examples above the runner-up was rated to their career-best levels and each time So You Think was granted extra pounds for the ease of success. But even that only brought him to figures between 123 and 128.

There was nothing that could live with him in Australia. There wasn't really a second-best horse in the 1m2f division and whoever he ran up against he beat with ease.

His two Irish starts have shed little new light on his potential. Both races were set up by Ballydoyle pacemakers with So You Think placed just behind them.

The bare form of both races was on a par with his best figures from Australia, but, though he still hasn't been forced to show how good he is, by continuing to win, and win well, he leaves the distinct impression that he would do the same to top-class horses and he looks poised for a huge effort later in the campaign.

It is rare for a horse to achieve the level of domination he became accustomed to in the Australian weight-for-age division and that rarity could be an alarm call for something special in Europe this term.

His Tattersalls Gold Cup win earned him a mark of 128, meaning he remains shy of that elusive 130-barrier, but he can't do more than keep on winning and his day should come.

One horse who broke into the 130-club back in 2009 is Goldikova, who continued her raid of top-flight prizes from around the world in the Prix d'Ispahan.

The evergreen filly is not always at her best first time up and 1m1f is a maximum for her, but she kept on gamely to secure her 13th Group/Grade 1 win by a neck from from Group 2 winner Cirrus Des Aigles and her fast-finishing stablemate Rajsaman.

She was well placed throughout, tracking her pacemaker Flash Dance (who actually hung onto fourth ahead of Byword) and the bare form is unspectacular, but a winning RPR of 118+ should be considered as a starting point for her season and not a sign that she has lost any of that ability.

World Class has already come down on the side of Canford Cliffs if they were to meet at Royal Ascot and this run did nothing to alter that position.

If she is as good as she was last season (which we still don't know), she would be better tackling Canford Cliffs on hometurf at Deauville later in the campaign, since Paco Boy almost beat her at Ascot last year (RPR 125) and her previous run in Britain was a half-length win over Heaven Sent in the 2009 Falmouth (RPR 116).

It was a busy week on the international stage and elsewhere a couple of smart front-running rides secured Classic victories for Roderic O'Connor and Shackleford.

Joseph O'Brien has a proven record of getting the fractions right on front-runners at the lower levels of Irish racing, but he showed a cool head to produce the goods in the biggest ride of his life so far aboard Roderic O'Connor in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

It wasn't the strongest renewal of the Classic andRoderic O'Connor had nothing to prove on his rock-solid juvenile form, so long as he had overcome that dismal effort behind Frankel in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

He clearly had and O'Brien set a pace which drew the best out of him, yet gave chief rival Dubawi Gold little chance of getting his head in front.

The first and second equalled their career best RPRs of 120 and 119, ranking this as a slightly below-average renewal, although still on a par with past winners like Cockney Rebel (121), Araafa (119) and Bachelor Duke (120).

Shackleford had been knocking at the door in top company since his switch to front-running tactics this year, finishing a close second to Dialed In in the Florida Derby and fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and the door finally opened for him in the Preakness.

It was his consistency and determination that paid off at Pimlico on Saturday. He went out and produced his best again and didn't stop up the run in, even when the other pace horses fell away and Animal Kingdom loomed up on his quarters.

Though Shackleford deserves credit for gutsing out the win, Animal Kingdom retains his place atop the American three-year-old division on RPRs after charging home to get within half-a-length of the winner despite not getting a perfect run early.

The runner-up's limited dirt experience and light build-up might have contributed to him losing the race, as he was slowly away and didn't appreciate the kick back, although once he was in the clear he showed he is still a colt to be reckoned with by closing down the winner.

If he hadn't given quite so much ground away early, handled the kickback, or if the race was any longer, he might have been a clearcut winner, and he has been rated alongside Shackleford on a mark of 121+ (5lb off his Kentucky Derby peak).

With the favourites Dialed In and Animal Kingdom both racing in close proximity from the rear, the Preakness allowed a mini-race between the two.

On Saturday, Dialed In had every chance to beat Animal Kingdom if good enough, but when they made their moves it was Animal Kingdom who set off in pursuit of the win, leaving Dialed In to plug on for fourth.

What we learned from the Preakness is that Animal Kingdom is the best horse from the first two American Classics, though precisely how good that makes him will only become clear as the season develops.

TOP OF THE CLASS: So You Think 128+ Aidan O'Brien (Ire) (Tattersalls Gold Cup, Curragh, 1m2f½, May 22)

Overall World Top Ten