News

Sidestepping The Stakes Anomaly

3rd Jul 2009

Racing And Sports - Friday, 3 July 2009 - Nathan Exelby

Stakes winners to runners figures are widely used as a measuring tool for stallion performance, but with stakes races varying so drastically in quality – as underlined by Timeform figures attached to each of the black type races this season - results can often be skewed.

Click Here For Racing & Sports' Timeform Sire Tables

Under the SW/R scenario, a high class Group 1 winner counts for no more than a Listed winner.

Furthermore, some Listed races boast suspect credentials and in fact, many non black type events are far stronger in terms of class and depth.

A glance at the Timeform ratings assigned to each of the stakes races run in Australia this season supports this.

The average (and also Median) Timeform rating across all G1, G2, G3 and Listed races in Australia this season is 110, with Weekend Hussler the benchmark with his 129 figure in last year's G1 Underwood Stakes.

But among the lower rated races, no less than 34 failed to reach triple figures (comprising 30 Listed and four G3 races), with the lowest coming in at just 85.

Yet the sires of these winners are each assigned a 'stakes winner' in official statistics.

A different way of assessing stallion performance is by looking at “100+” Timeform figures.

Encosta De Lago is the leading sire in Australia by earnings this season and it follows that he is also the leading sire by individual 100+ runners, with 46 (at a rate of 14.4%).

On a 100+ to runners basis though, it's Redoute's Choice that comes out on top (100 runners or more), with his 45 100+ runners coming at a ratio of 19.1%.

Rock Of Gibraltar has just the three stakes winners this season, but he's had plenty of runners knocking on the door of stakes success and he comes in second on the list at 18.1% for his 27 100+ runners.

Lonhro and Red Ransom are both striking at better than 17%.

One young stallion making a bright start is Not A Single Doubt .

He's yet to taste stakes success, but he is a big contender to have the most individual winners for a first season sire and his nine 100+ runners have come at a rate of better than one in four - 26.5%.

100+ runners/runners (100 runners or more) – 12% or better

• 19.1% Redoute's Choice (236 runners)
• 18.1% Rock Of Gibraltar (149 runners)
• 17.6% Lonhro (108 runners)
• 17.1% Red Ransom (140 runners)
• 15% Exceed And Excel (127 runners)
• 14.9% Street Cry (101 runners)
• 14.7% Choisir (190 runners)
• 14.4% Encosta De Lago (319 runners)
• 14.4% Hussonet (146 runners)
• 13.4% Commands (253 runners)
• 13.3% O'Reilly (166 runners)
• 13.1% Volksraad (153 runners)
• 12.8% Scenic (148 runners)
• 12.4% More Than Ready (210 runners)
• 12% Anabaa (133 runners)

Others of Note

• 26.5% Not A Single Doubt (34 runners)
• 25% Singspiel (24 runners)
• 21.6% Danehill (51 runners)
• 20% Danroad (30 runners)
• 16% Metal Storm (25 runners)
• 13.2% Snippets (38 runners)
• 13.2% Reset (76 runners)
• 13.1% Dehere (84 runners)

MOST 100+ Runners (%100+ runners/runners) – 20 or more

• 46 (14.4%) Encosta De Lago
• 45 (19.1%) Redoute's Choice
• 34 (13.4% Commands
• 28 (11%) Danehill Dancer
• 28 (14.7%) Choisir
• 27 (18.1%) Rock Of Gibraltar
• 26 (12.4%) More Than Ready
• 24 (17.1%) Red Ransom
• 24 (11.9%) Zabeel
• 22 (9.8%) Flying Spur
• 22 (13.3%) O'Reilly
• 21 (10%) Testa Rossa
• 21 (14.4%) Hussonet
• 20 (13.1%) Volksraad
• 20 (10.3%) Danzero

Note: All Stats Australia & New Zealand combined